Measuring Urban Shrinkage in India Using Night-time Satellite Data

Nawaj Sarif , International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS)
Archana K. Roy, Professor

Urban shrinkage has become a global phenomenon, with an increasing number of cities experiencing population decline. However, research on urban shrinkage has primarily focused on Western cities, overlooking urban shrinkage in developing countries. Studies highlighted that India has a major concentration of shrinking cities in Asia. Thus, this study primarily aims to quantify urban shrinkage in India using night-light data, examining spatial patterns and verifying urban shrinkage with night-light and census data measures. The findings indicate a rising trend of urban shrinkage in India with clusters of shrinking cities in selective regions. Overall, 17.4 percent of urban units experienced high urban shrinkage intensity during 1992-2021. The spatial pattern of urban shrinkage was similar in both census and night-light datasets, however, night-light highlighted new shrinking urban units. Moreover, the statutory towns experienced a higher intensity of urban shrinkage compared to the other settlements. Understanding the paradoxical nature of urban shrinkage in a low-urbanized country like India is crucial for better urban planning. Furthermore, addressing the challenges posed by shrinking cities will help achieve sustainable development goals by adopting an inclusive approach for all urban settlements. Striving for balanced urban growth is crucial for fostering economic prosperity and reducing regional inequality.

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 Presented in Session 7. Internal Migration and Urbanization