Cause-Specific Excess Mortality Patterns in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Ekaterina Degtiareva , University of Oxford
Andrea M Tilstra, University of Oxford
Jennifer Dowd, University of Oxford

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the US experienced significant excess mortality beyond the number of official COVID-19 deaths. How these non-Covid excess deaths broke down by cause, age and sex is less understood. Utilizing the CDC Wonder's Monthly Multiple Cause of Death Data, we assessed excess mortality from March 2020 to December 2022 by cause, age, and sex using a Generalized Additive Model. We found an estimated 1,302,846 excess deaths (95% CI: 1,102,368 to 1,507,630). Significant increases were observed in deaths due to cardiovascular diseases and substance use, resulting in 116,703 excess deaths (95% CI: 67,080 to 168,042) and 87,658 deaths (95% CI: 69,115 to 106,310), respectively. Young males (30-44) were especially vulnerable to substance-related deaths, while cardiovascular impacts were profound in both males and females ages 30-44. Some causes of death – such as influenza and suicides – saw fewer deaths than expected. While some of the increased mortality in cardiovascular disease likely captures unmeasured COVID-19 mortality, the dramatic surge in substance use mortality points to important indirect social impacts of the pandemic.

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 Presented in Session 100. Excess Mortality and Life Expectancy Changes during the COVID-19 pandemic