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Kathryn Beck , Centre for Fertility and Health, Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Rannveig K. Hart, Department of Health and Inequality, Norwegian Institute of Public Health
Martin Flatø, Norwegian Institute of Public Health
This article analyzes the effect of school starting age on fertility and family formation by utilizing Norway’s age-based school entry policy. Using individual-level register data and a regression discontinuity design, we find that being born after the age cutoff for school start results in an increased age at first birth of 2.9 months for women and 4.0 months for men, while completed cohort fertility was unchanged. Similarly, being born after the cutoff increased the age at first marriage by 4.7 months for women and 2.4 months for men, with no effect on the overall probability of having a partner. Results show that age at completed education and earnings development are important mechanisms in this fertility postponement. Additionally, we analyze detailed age- and parity-specific effects. We find that for both males and females, those born after the cutoff have fewer children between ages 15-30 compared to those born before, however, they “catch up” by having more children in later ages. We see a similar pattern not just for first births, but across parities and for both males and females. These age- and parity-specific trends provide important and novel insights into how age at school start affects the timing of fertility, but not overall fertility. Our study provides causal evidence for the impact of increased school starting age on family formation and fertility in Norway and to the best of our knowledge is the first study to extend the scope to include estimates on men’s fertility and family formation.
Presented in Session 38. Fertility and Education