Modeling The Role of Freedom of Movement of Workers in Shaping Migration Patterns in the EU+: the Case of Poland

Maciej J. Danko , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Domantas Jasilionis, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research / Vytautas Magnus University
Dmitri A. Jdanov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research / National Research University Higher School of Economics
Arkadiusz Wisniowski, University of Manchester
Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

We developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to quantify international migration in 31 European countries from 2002 to 2018. The approach consistently addresses data quality issues, harmonizes migration definitions, and merges administrative and EU Labor Force Survey data. We then used the model outcomes to assess the impact of freedom of movement and labor market access in destination countries. Our primary focus is on Poland, a key country among the A-8 countries that joined the EU in 2004. The evidence suggests that the main emigration flows from Poland shifted from Germany to the UK and other countries following Poland's 2004 EU accession. However, in 2011, the pattern reversed when Germany opened its labor market to A-8 country workers, resulting in a significant increase in immigration. As we refine our analyses, we expect to be able to provide more details about the role of migration policy on European migration dynamics.

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 Presented in Session 61. EuroMigration Insights: Unraveling Patterns and Returns in European Mobility