Remigration following Intentions: How Well Do Intentions Predict Remigration Behaviour? A Study Based on Matched Survey and Register Data

Özge Elif Özer , University of Groningen
Adrien Remund, Rijksuniversiteit Groningen
Clara H. Mulder, University of Groningen
Matthijs Kalmijn, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Research Institute NIDI/University of Groningen

This study investigates the relationship between remigration intentions and actual behaviour among migrants and their descendants in the Netherlands. Using unique individually matched data from the 2015 Survey of Integration of Minorities (SIM) and the Dutch population register, we analyse mobility patterns in six immigrant groups: Turkish, Moroccan, Surinamese, Antilean, Somali, and Polish immigrants. We examine the predictive capacity of five-year migration intentions in forecasting actual mobility. More specifically, we examine who is more likely to realise their remigration intention and who is more likely to become unintended movers. Our findings reveal that individuals expressing intentions to return to their country of origin are significantly more likely to remigrate. However, it is still only a small minority of those intended to remigrate who actually do so. Remigration intentions, including the desire to spend part-time in both the Netherlands and the country of origin, exhibit a strong positive association with actual remigration compared to those intending to stay in the Netherlands. Results suggest that remigration intentions have a significant influence on actual remigration, shedding light on the complex factors driving remigration behaviour. Factors such as standardized household income exhibit a noteworthy negative relationship with remigration intention realisation, and origin groups show substantial variations in intention realisation compared to the reference group. This study offers valuable insights into the multifaceted dynamics of remigration and presents a stepping stone for understanding the interplay between intentions and behaviour in remigration.

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 Presented in Session 6. Migration Momentum: Mapping Multigenerational Mobility