Changes in Birth Seasonality in East and West Germany, 1946-2017

Risto Conte Keivabu , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

Seasonal trends in fertility are found in several contexts and are affected by societal and environmental factors. In particular, major social shifts could lead to changes in such trends. This paper documents how birth seasonality in East and West Germany changed across time and in particular after the reunification happened in 1989. We use birth counts by month from the Human Fertility Database divided by East and West Germany from 1946 to 2017. We normalize the number of births by the number of days in each month and construct a birth index. We then use descriptive statistics to show in which months births are concentrated across seven decades and which is the month with the highest and lowest number of births in the two regions over time. We observe similar birth seasonality in East and West Germany in the decades from 1946 to 1976 showing a peak in the first months of the year and a second peak in September. In the 70s West Germany starts to diverge showing the emergence of a single peak of births in late summer. Shortly after reunification, East Germany start to resemble the seasonal trends of fertility found in West Germany. The findings raise questions about the potential causes behind East Germany's rapid adaptation to West Germany's fertility patterns post-reunification, suggesting significant social and economic influences. This research underscores the impact of major societal changes on fertility trends, providing insight into the dynamic nature of birth seasonality within different sociopolitical contexts.

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 Presented in Session 58. Regional Heterogeneity of Fertility within Countries