Value Change, Uncertainty and Voluntary Childlessness? The Development of Ideal Family Size in Austria

Bernhard Riederer , Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/OAW, Univ. Vienna)
Isabella Buber-Ennser, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)
Ingrid Setz, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, Univ. Vienna)

The two-child family ideal is still prevalent across Europe. Nevertheless, research suggests that family norms are weakening and that intentional childlessness/childfreeness is gaining relevance. To describe the development of childbearing ideals in Austria, we employ data from thirteen different surveys conducted between 1986 and 2022/23. We explore both societal and personal childbearing ideals. In-depth analyses comprising multinomial regression and decomposition models focus on the subsample of 19- to 29-year-olds. Descriptive results demonstrate that the persistent dominance of the two-child ideal masks relevant changes beneath the surface. An increasing proportion of young adults does not name an ideal number of children at the societal level and tends towards a personal ideal of zero children. Both figures clearly peaked during the COVID-19-pandemic. Findings indicate that uncertainty about the societal ideal is stronger among the childless and the highly educated. A personal ideal of less than two children is more common among the childless, the lower educated, the unemployed, and persons who report a societal ideal below two or do not name a societal ideal. The increasing uncertainty about the societal ideal seems to be an important driver of the decreasing personal ideal family size. These developments are likely related to changes in values and uncertainty due to current crises (e.g., climate change). Finally, our results also have implications for the future phrasing of questions about fertility ideals. Uncertainties and opinions that there is no ideal number of children should be adequately considered.

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course