Solutions to Refugee Crises: A Comprehensive Analysis of Return Intentions

Seraina Ruegger , University of Zurich

With the global refugee population at an all-time high, it is imperative to gain a better understanding of refugees' individual intentions and the factors influencing their desire to return home. This study utilizes interview data collected by the UNHCR from Ukrainian refugees across multiple European countries in 2022 and 2023 (N=8'700). In response to the urgent need for solutions for refugees, we ask: "How can the number of refugees returning home or successfully integrating into host countries be increased?" While academic research has primarily focused on the causes of forced displacement and the consequences of refugee influxes in host countries, this project seeks to provide a broader perspective. It explores the interconnections among the three solutions - return, integration, and resettlement - arguing that the likelihood of return increases when opportunities for integration decrease, and vice versa. This approach is grounded in classical migration studies that consider push and pull factors as determinants of migration. The study also highlights the significance of motivation and opportunity factors, examining how individual and group-level refugee characteristics, such as employment and language, along with country-level and international elements, influence the likelihood and type of solution. Integration emerges as a central theme across all solutions, whether in the host country, a third state, or as reintegration in the home country. This project advances our theoretical understanding of durable solutions for refugees, enriches the literature on forced displacement, and contributes to the political discourse regarding which solutions should be promoted and when return becomes voluntary.

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 Presented in Session 57. Migrant Conflict Chronicles: Displacement Dynamics and Decision Dilemmas