COUNTING KIN IN AN AGE TIMES STAGE STRUCTURED NETWORK

Joe Butterick , University of Southampton
Joanne Ellison, University of Southampton
Jakub Bijak, University of Southampton
Erengul Dodd, University of Southampton
Jonathan J. Forster, University of Warwick
Peter W. F. Smith, University of Southampton
Jason Hilton, University of Southampton

Recent research on kinship has extended age-structured models to include additional characteristics, or ``stages'' (multi-state kinship). The leading framework requires specific assumptions relating to the nature of stage. Despite the importance of multi-state kinship networks, to our knowledge only one explicit example has prior considered the effects of stage on the demography of kin, and in a specific context. Generalising multi-state kinship dynamics remains an open challenge in demography, a challenge this research directly tackles. Herein, we present a framework which provides (i) a novel method to extend multi-state kinship to any characterisation of stage, and (ii) a concise alternative to existing theory. Our results demonstrate that a full multi-state description of an individual's kinship network can be formulated by drawing from Markov theory. In more detail, we explicate how to project kin backwards and forwards in time; move through family lineages; and calculate cross-generational expected age$\times$stage kin distributions. The theoretical and computational benefits of this approach are illustrated applicatively, where we define stages as spatial locations, exemplified by clusters of local authority districts (LADs) in Scotland.” Our results elucidate how spatial distribution -- a demographic characteristic ubiquitous across (and between) societies -- affects individuals' networks of relatives.

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 Presented in Session 16. Modelling Kinship and Fertility Processes