Future Uncertainty and Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Germany and Italy

Michaela Kreyenfeld , Hertie School of Governance
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence
Julie O’Sullivan, Charité
Raffaele Guetto, University of Florence
Enrique Alonso-Perez, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin
Vincent Ramos, Hertie School and Humboldt University Berlin
Heike Solga , WZB
Jan Paul Heisig , WZB
Giacomo Bazzani, University of Florence
Paul Gellert, Charité Berlin

The “uncertainty-fertility nexus” has attracted increasing academic interest. Most studies assume that couples would refrain from having children if they were faced with future employment uncertainties. In contrast to previous studies, we consider not only employment uncertainties, but also old-age caregiving uncertainties. Old-age caregiving uncertainties are defined as uncertainties regarding the responsibility of caring for parents. We use an experimental design to investigate whether uncertainties are perceived as a universal prerequisite for having children, or whether patterns vary by gender, social background, and country context. The data come from a factorial survey experiment conducted in 2022 in Italy and Germany among childless respondents aged 20-39 (n=2,438). The analysis shows that future old-age caregiving uncertainties are perceived as equally important as future employment uncertainties for having children. Although caregiving uncertainties is slightly more important in the Italian sample than in the German sample, the overall patterns are very similar across gender, social background, and the two countries.

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 Presented in Session 10. Contextual Factors for Fertility