Why Is Life Expectancy in England & Wales Falling Behind? A Decomposition Approach

Jennifer Dowd , University of Oxford
Antonino Polizzi, Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science
José Manuel Aburto, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM)
Luyin Zhang, University of Oxford
Andrea M Tilstra, University of Oxford

Continued improvements in maximum global life expectancy suggest that the stagnation in life expectancy at birth recently observed in England and Wales is avoidable. Existing research on the lagging life expectancy in England and Wales has compared trends to the average of a group of peer countries. Here, we extend this research by decomposing life expectancy differences between England and Wales and 17 individual countries in Western Europe using data from the World Health Organization and the Human Mortality Database from 2001 to 2019. Applying the contour decomposition method, we distinguish contemporary gaps in male and female life expectancy due to (1) differences in age- and cause-specific death rates around 2001; and (2) diverging trends in these rates thereafter. Disaggregating life expectancy gaps into initial differences and differential trends allows us to disentangle whether the health of the English and Welsh is losing ground or whether there are signs of a longer-term mortality disadvantage. For both sexes, we find that the relative life expectancy gap between England & Wales worsened for almost all countries from 2011-2019. Diverging trends in external causes, circulatory/metabolic & dementia/Alzheimer’s were the most significant contributors to growing English disadvantage. Mid-life age groups contributed to diverging life expectancy gaps, but older ages were also significant, especially for females.

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 Presented in Session 51. Flash session Causes of Death and Multi-morbidity at Death