Sub-national projections of migration, population and economy: The Demography-Economy-Land Use interaction (DELi) model

Riccardo Curtale, Joint Research Centre - European Commission
Filipe Batista e Silva, Joint Research Centre - European Commission
Fabrizio Natale, European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Christoph Deuster , European Commission - Joint Research Centre
Matteo Schiavone, Joint Research Centre - European Commission
Lewis Dijkstra, European Commission
Alfredo Alessandrini, Joint Research Centre - European Commission
Philipp Ueffing, European Commission - Joint Research Centre

Socioeconomic and demographic projections are essential tools for policy-making that are typically available at coarse geographical aggregations, which is often insufficient for policy domains with a strong territorial dimension. In this paper, we propose a model that downscales socioeconomic and demographic projections from the EU-country level to the sub-national level: The Demography-Economy-Land Use interaction (DELi) model. The model captures ongoing and expected processes of divergence and convergence across regions. It relies on a set of linked equations that integrate assumptions regarding future regional growth and estimates regional levels of net migration, population, employment, GDP and land use dynamically and recursively. The model is structured in a flexible way that allows generating different regionalization scenarios based on the same set of country-level projections. The disaggregated regional projections can be used to assess future impacts of scenarios on a variety of issues, such as urbanization, internal migration, climate, environment, and natural hazards.

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 Presented in Session 47. Internal Migration and Urban Change