The Potential Impact of Migration on Prospective Population Ageing in Asia

Markus Dörflinger , Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), Germany
Michaela Potancoková, Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU)
Guillaume Marois, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Population ageing is a global trend and one of the main demographic challenges of the 21st century. Immigration as a mean to counteract population ageing is often controversially discussed in many ageing countries. The volume of migration needed to achieve a demographic goal such as offsetting population ageing is referred to as replacement migration. While replacement migration is mostly calculated using chronological age, prospective age which accounts for differences in life expectancy across time and space is rarely incorporated. As the number of Asian countries experiencing population ageing is rising, we assess the potential impact of international migration on population ageing in Asian countries combining replacement migration and prospective age concept. Using data from the UN’s World Population Prospects 2022, we estimate the migration needed to offset prospective population ageing in eleven Asian countries 2022-2050. Our results reveal large variations across countries. The lowest demand for replacement migration to offset population ageing is found in countries where population ageing is already most advanced. However, in most countries replacement migration to keep the old-age dependency ratio constant exceeds observed migration rates by far – also when using prospective measures of age. The volumes of replacement migration to maintain the size of the prospective working-age population seem more realistic but still higher net migration would be needed in most countries. As higher immigration can barely be seen as the sole solution for population ageing, policy makers may consider a combination of different strategies to ensure future development in ageing Asian countries.

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 Presented in Session 54. Flash session International Migration