The Unexpected Decline to Very Low Fertility Levels in Five Latin American Countries. The Role of Education.

Wanda Cabella , Universidad De La República
Cecilia Velázquez, Centro de Estudios Distributivos, Laborales y Sociales, Universidad de la Plata

Although the negative relationship between education and fertility has shown signs of reversal in some advanced economies, the level of education continues to be closely linked to decreasing fertility in Latin America. We explore fertility patterns by considering maternal education in five Latin American countries that have witnessed significant declines in their TFR in recent years. To this aim, we calculated specific and total fertility rates by education level for the period circa 2010-2020, combining multiple data sources (vital statistics, female population projections by age and official household surveys). A decomposition exercise was also carried out to determine the extent to which the observed variations can be attributed to changes in the distribution of the female population by education or to differences in fertility levels among educational groups. The findings show that lower-educated women experienced the most significant declines in fertility rates, although a reduction in fertility was observed across all educational levels in nearly all countries. However, significant disparities persist in fertility timing and intensity between highly educated women and those in lower and middle education levels. The former consistently exhibit a postponement of fertility in all the countries examined, with fertility levels nearing one child per woman. The decline in adolescent and early fertility, particularly among women with lower educational attainment, played a pivotal role in this reduction and in altering the timing of fertility. The decomposition analysis provides evidence suggesting that behavioral changes within educational groups were the primary driving force behind the observed shifts.

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course