First and Second Births in China: Individual and Contextual Determinants

Kuoshi Hu , University of St Andrews
Hill Kulu, University of St Andrews
Julia Mikolai, University of St Andrews

Fertility change is an important topic for the social and economic development in China. The proportion of females with two children increased after the change in family planning policy; however, the first birth postponement and the low share of women with one child are the main reasons for the declining aggregate fertility in China. Therefore, to have a thorough understanding of fertility change in China, it is important to analyse the timing and levels of first and second births. However, very few studies analysed the timing and levels of first and second births from a life course perspective in China. In addition, these previous studies paid less attention to how the local context influences fertility behaviour and the young cohorts who are still experiencing fertility ages. This research investigates the first and second birth rates of females who were born in 1960-1999. We apply event history analysis to data from China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) 2010-2020. Preliminary results show that the variation in the timing and level of first births is small, and the impact of individual and contextual characteristics (e.g. Hukou status, ethnicity, birth cohort) on the first birth rates is limited. The variation in the second birth rates is large. Birth cohort, ethnicity, educational level, Hukou status, sex of first child, living context and family planning policies are all important for the propensity of having a second birth.

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course