Does Migration Affect Aging? A Spatiotemporal Analysis in Italy

Francesca Licari, Instituto Nazionale di Statistica (ISTAT)
Cinzia Castagnaro, Italian National Statistical Institute
Roberto Basile , University of L'Aquila
Francesca Centofanti, Università Tor Vergata Roma

Population aging results from an increasing life expectancy and a declining fertility rate. Due to socioeconomic progress that improves the quality of life and healthy survival, the rising life expectancy has increased the number of elderly people. Population aging raises concerns about the sustainability of social and economic developments, and social and health care. The balance between the elderly and working-age populations is a cause for concern in demography because it highlights the level of support available to the elderly. The case of Italy is particularly significant because the phenomenon has been more rapid and intense than in other European countries. In this analysis, we will use the Potential Support Ratio (PSR, UN Population Division 2002), defined as the reciprocal of the old-age dependence ratio. A lower PSR indicates that the economically active population faces a greater burden to support the social services needed by older persons. The sharp increase in aging in Italy over the past 20 years has also been accompanied by strong spatial heterogeneity. We will analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of the PSR and apply a two-step decomposition to assess the contribution of the working-age and old-age population to the overall spatial convergence or divergence in PSR and explain which component of the working-age dynamics mainly contribute to the overall dynamics and convergence in PSR.

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 Presented in Session 25. Migration and Spatial Aspects of Ageing