Seasonality in Mortality and Its Impact on Life Expectancy across Europe

Isabella Marinetti , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Dmitri A. Jdanov, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research / National Research University Higher School of Economics
Marília Nepomuceno, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

The influence of short-term risk factors on longevity trends remains a largely under-investigated topic. Despite increasing attention to this topic during the last pandemic, the exact mechanisms of influence of different short-term factors on mortality trends are not known. Nevertheless, the role of intra-annual mortality fluctuations in shaping long-term trends is critical, especially in the context of climate change, recent epidemics and ageing populations, where the growing number of the elderly population increases the number of people at higher risk. This paper investigates (1) the impact of seasonality on Italian regions’ life expectancy trends in 2003-2019; and (2) the relationship between seasonal mortality and spatial inequalities in life expectancy. We used the stepwise decomposition method applied to groups of months (meteorological seasons) to investigate the contribution of each season to the change in life expectancy at the subnational level. Subsequently, we employed direct standardization to obtain the standardized death rates (SDR), and then we computed winter and summer mortality ratios of SDR by year and region. Homogeneous deviation pattern in mortality was observed between seasons, although high spatial inequalities in mortality. Despite high heterogeneity, the winter and summer mortality ratios demonstrated the growing importance of winter mortality for all Italian regions. Moreover, as life expectancy increased, we observed an overall decrease in the seasonality of mortality over annual mortality estimates. The results will help in understanding whether changes in seasonal mortality have contributed to shaping the current life expectancy trends and identifying territories most affected by seasonal fluctuation of mortality.

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 Presented in Session 65. Flash session Mortality and Longevity