Assessing the Impact of Temperature Anomalies on Fertility: A Municipality-Level Analysis of Birth Rates in Mexico (1985-2020)

Itza Olguin Zuniga , University of Bologna
Côme Cheritel, Paris School of Economics
Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna

Around the world, summer temperatures are breaking records, with extreme heat waves becoming more frequent affecting health and wellbeing of the population. These temperature anomalies, which have been attributable to anthropogenic climate change, can potentially influence fertility, differentially across regions and through varied mechanisms. Limited research exists on the impact of temperature anomalies in Latin America. To fill in the gap, this study assesses how temperature anomalies, particularly heat extremes correlate with birth rates at the municipal level in Mexico between 1985 to 2020. Administrative birth records and census data were used to estimate birth rates. Employing a panel regression model with time and municipality fixed effects, we investigate whether the deviations of daily average temperatures from their long-term trends in each municipality are associated with birth rates.

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 Presented in Session 58. Regional Heterogeneity of Fertility within Countries