What Mechanisms Link House Prices to Fertility? A Multilevel Analysis

Daniël van Wijk , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI)
Peteke Feijten, The Netherlands Institute for Social Research

Fertility levels have fallen in many rich societies since 2010. During the same period, strong increases in house prices and rents have resulted in a growing shortage of affordable housing for young adults. Although links between house prices and fertility are frequently assumed, surprisingly few studies exist that explore the consequences of changes on the housing market for fertility. Moreover, the few studies that are available have not examined the individual-level mechanisms that drive the link between house prices and fertility outcomes. To address these research gaps, we use register data from the Netherlands that contain information on individual and regional housing characteristics on the full population of childbearing age for the period 2006-2022. We hypothesize that fertility has declined (more) in regions where house prices increased (more), and we use data on individuals’ housing characteristics and household formation to test different mechanisms that may explain this effect. In particular, the detailed individual-level data at our disposal allow us to include a more comprehensive set of housing characteristics than what has usually been considered, including not only indicators of homeownership but also of the type (e.g. single- or multi-family), size, and cost of housing. Multilevel event history analyses will show how regional house prices influence parity-specific birth rates, and how this house price effect is mediated by young adults' propensity to live in child-friendly housing, the cost of housing, and processes of household formation.

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 Presented in Session 10. Contextual Factors for Fertility