The Effect of Covid-19 on Premature Mortality. The Case of Usa, Italy and France

Stefano Mazzuco , University of Padova

The recent Covid–19 outbreak severely impacted on longevity of many countries. However, mortality has several components (infant, premature, old age) and it is not yet clear how such impact is distributed across them. We therefore analyse the evolution of both premature and senescent mortality by means of a mixture model, which can distinguish the different components. This model is applied to regional data on mortality in Italy and France from 2015 to 2021 and to US states from 2015 to 2020. Data comes from Italian National Institute of Statistics (Italy), the French Human Mortality Database (France) and CDC. The main finding is that Covid-19 severely impacted also the premature mortality, not the senescent one, in all the considered countries. This appears clearly in Usa where states with higher Covid death rates in 2020 have also a higher rise (with respect to 2019) of premature mortality.

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 Presented in Session 100. Excess Mortality and Life Expectancy Changes during the COVID-19 pandemic