The Great Recession and Lifespan Inequality: Causal Insights from the European Laboratory

Gianni Carboni, University of Sassari
Giambattista Salinari , Università degli Studi di Sassari
Virginia Zarulli, University of Padova, Department of Statistics
Federico Benassi, Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT)

This paper investigates the pro-cyclical relationship between business cycles and mortality patterns, specifically focusing on the Causal Effect of the 2008 Great Recession on Lifespan Inequality within 26 European countries. To the best of our knowledge, the research is the first to prioritize economic crises as a key determinant in assessing life expectancy disparities. The study employed a causal Difference in Differences methodology, categorizing countries into treatment and control groups based on their exposure to the Great Recession, measured through variations in unemployment rates. This analysis revealed a significant, beneficial, and long-lasting effect of the Great Recession on Lifespan Inequality for approximately three years, signifying a reduction in lifespan disparities and suggesting potential health benefits in affected countries (in line with the so-called Thomas Effect). The manifestation of this effect aligns congruently with the intensity of the crisis endured by individual countries.

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 Presented in Session 105. Measuring Health, Wellbeing and Morbidity