Neighbourhoods, Marriage, and Divorce in Southern Sweden 1924-2015.

Vinicius de Souza Maia , Lund University

This study investigates how childhood neighbours impact age at first marriage and the likelihood of divorce. Theories of neighbourhood effects posit a link between the neighbourhood context in childhood and especially adolescence shape individuals’ attitudes towards family and may contribute to stability, relationship quality and likelihood of divorce. The literature points to neighbourhood deprivation as important factors in early transitions into parenthood, reduced likelihood of ever-marrying and increased divorce, especially in high-segregation contexts, but there is also evidence that socioeconomic indicators are not reliable predictors of family formation and dissolution. I study cohorts born 1948-1967 in Landskrona, an industrial port town in Southern Sweden, at the peak of its industrialisation, and follow-up them up to age 45 in national registers 1968-2015. I measure their ages at first marriage and the likelihood of ever-divorcing. I construct neighbourhood measures in childhood based on the social class of their nearest neighbours at various scales, which yields a dynamic measure approximating cumulative exposure. We estimate OLS regressions and linear probability models for the outcomes and control for the physical environment, household and family environment, class origin and educational attainment. Preliminary findings show that having higher social class neighbours leads to significantly later ages at first marriage, especially for men. Probabilities of ever-divorcing are slightly higher for women, but there was no association for men.

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 Presented in Session 59. Migration and Spatial Dynamics over Time and Space