Fertility Decline in France since 2014

Laurent Toulemon , Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
Didier Breton, Université de Strasbourg and Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED)
John Tomkinson, Université de Lille
Youna Marchand, Strasbourg University

After a peak in 2010, the total fertility rate decreased in France, especially since 2014. The decline is accompanied by a steady rise in the average age at childbirth, leading to an accelerated decline of fertility at young ages. The aim of the paper is to focus on young childless women’s fertility, in order to check whether the decline in fertility at young ages is related with a decline among young childless couples or with a delay in couple formation. In order to answer this question, further determinants of fertility must be considered. The French demographic panel (Échantillon démographique permanent, EDP) includes data from census, civil registration, tax files, employers data. Using these data, Didier Reynaud (2022) could estimate a fertility index based on fertility by age and parity, and showed that fertility by standard of living was following a U-Shape. This U-shape came from a complex interaction between place of birth, education and income: fertility increased with income for (highly educated) women born in France, and decreased with income among women born abroad (with a lower education). Fertility decline between 2014 and 2019, as measured by his fertility index, was homogenous by level of income, when controlled for place of birth of the mother. Nevertheless, most of the decline took place among childless women. Using the couple status available in the tax data, we will precisely assess the decline of fertility by couple status, age and parity with controlling for education, place of birth and standard of living.

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course