Does the 2020 Population Census Conceal Russia's Demographic Challenges?

Salavat Abylkalikov , Partner in Arts Design and Social Sciences, Northumbria University

Researchers had high hopes for the most recent all-Russian population census when studying various socio-demographic processes, especially focusing on changes in the age and sex composition of the country's population over the last inter-census period. However, during the census, it became evident that in certain regions, the census was conducted with severe violations and falsifications, significantly compromising the quality of the statistics. A survey by the Levada Center revealed that approximately 42% of Russians did not participate in the census or were not counted by their family members, in stark contrast to previous post-Soviet censuses, where this figure was only 6-7%. The notably poor quality of the latest census in Russia will have a significant impact. It will hinder our ability to assess the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and the Putin’s criminal war against Ukraine on mortality, distort the relative birth rates, render migration statistics highly unreliable, and obscure impending challenges associated with a substantial shift in the age structure of Russia's population over the next decade. Drawing from data from the Russian population census, contemporary records of demographic events, and estimates of the age and sex structure of the Russian population, along with various demographic forecasts provided by Rosstat and the UN, I propose to evaluate the extent to which the 2020 census has introduced distortions and adjustments in our understanding of the age-sex structure and demographic indicators. In the preparation of the report, I plan to use demographic analysis methods, the demographic balance approach, and demographic forecasting using the cohort-component method.

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 Presented in Session 98. Flash session 2 Economics, Human Capital and Labour Markets