How Change in Age-Specific Mortality Has Affected Us Life Expectancy over the Past 120 Years?

Jiaxin Shi , University of Wisconsin-Madison
Jason Fletcher, University of Wisconsin-Madison

This research provides a long-term overview of how age-specific mortality has affected US life expectancy trends since 1900. By comparing these findings with those of selected high-income countries, we examine whether the US trajectory has deviated from other countries from a long-term perspective. The results reveal relatively consistent trends across countries, with infant and child mortality losing its historically significant role and older-age mortality becoming more important in recent gains in life expectancy. Although mortality change in midlife and old age has exhibited diminishing importance for life expectancy gains in other countries over the recent decades, it is particularly so for the US, even turning negative contributions to change in life expectancy between 2010–2019. Historically, reducing mortality at ages 1–80 is more or less equally important for potential gains in life expectancy. Currently, the most potential gains in future life expectancy must be achieved by reducing mortality at ages 50–90, followed by ages immediately before 50 and after 90. We find that the most important source of life expectancy gains has shifted from cardiovascular disease mortality in 1960–2010 to neoplasms mortality in 2010–2019. On the other hand, cardiovascular disease is still the most common cause of death in 2019. Deaths from mental and nervous system diseases have increased quickly over the last four decades, becoming the second most common cause of death for US women, and the third most common cause for US men (followed by neoplasms).

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 Presented in Session 51. Flash session Causes of Death and Multi-morbidity at Death