The Contribution of Education to Fertility Decline in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Bruno D. Schoumaker , UCLouvain
David A. Sánchez Páez, Universidad de Valladolid

The increased accessibility and enhanced quality of education represent key drivers in the reduction of fertility rates. Yet, the extent to which the educational composition of the population has contributed to fertility declines in low and middle-income countries is only partially documented. In this paper, we aim to determine the contribution of composition effects (the improvement in education) and rate effects (fertility changes within educational groups) to fertility declines. We use over 350 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) from around 60 low- and middle-income countries. Fertility trends by educational level and trends in education are reconstructed from pooled data over 30-40 years in many countries. A decomposition method is applied to disentangle composition and rate effects in fertility transitions. Preliminary results indicate that composition effects consistently contributed to fertility declines, supporting earlier evidence that improved access to education contributes to fertility declines. However, composition effects vary greatly across countries and over time. The composition effect seems more relevant at the beginning of the fertility transition, suggesting that education would be a major driving force behind the onset of fertility decline. Later in the transition, rate effects tend to gain ground, indicating that within-group changes – related to other factors – are the dominant forces in the transition.

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 Presented in Session 38. Fertility and Education