Recovering from the COVID-19 Mortality Crisis: Are Brazilian States Returning to Pre-Pandemic Levels and Causes of Death Structure?

Raphael Villela Almeida, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA)
Angelita Alves de Carvalho, Escola Nacional de Ciências Estatísticas (ENCE/IBGE)
Ana Carolina Bertho, National School of Statistical Sciences (ENCE), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE)
César Augusto Marques Silva, Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
Marília Nepomuceno , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

In Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic substantially increases the country’s mortality level, abruptly reversing the positive trends in life expectancy observed since the early 2010s. In 2020 and 2021, mortality substantially increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in 2022, Brazil experienced a remarkable recovery, with life expectancy approaching pre-pandemic levels. This study shows that this recovery is not uniform across Brazil's 27 states, indicating that the spatial disparities observed during the pandemic persist into the recovery phase. Our findings suggest that regional disparities in mortality increased during the recovery phase. We will further investigate which are the age groups and causes of death mainly responsible to the pandemic recovery and if they change across states.

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 Presented in Session 18. The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Health, Wellbeing and Morbidity