Regression Trees for Estimating Mortality Deceleration and Levelling-off

Trifon I. Missov, Interdisciplinary Centre On Population Dynamics, University Of Southern Denmark
Silvio Cabral Patricio , Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics (CPop), University of Southern Denmark

Mortality deceleration and levelling-off take place for a number of populations, but there are datasets that provide little or no such evidence. As for many contemporary populations deaths are postponed, we hypothesize that onset of mortality deceleration is also shifted to higher ages. We use regression trees to estimate the age of mortality deceleration, as well as the onset and level of an eventual mortality plateau for six countries from the Human Mortality Database after 1950. Our preliminary findings show that the onsets of deceleration and levelling-off increase with time, while the level of the plateau is quite stable. For almost all populations after 2000, mortality deceleration starts at age 100 or above, while the plateau is reached at ages above 105.

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 Presented in Session P2. Health, Mortality, Ageing - Aperitivo