Estimating Population Exposure to Multiple Environmental Burdens in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Pixelated Study Over Last Two Decades (2000-2019)

Ankit Sikarwar , National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED)
Valerie Golaz, INED

In the face of increasing global environmental uncertainties, sub-Saharan Africa stands as a highly vulnerable region with a massive population struggling with poverty and inequalities. Different environmental risk factors can coexist simultaneously and act as multiple environmental burdens (MEB); however, population exposure to MEB remains unexamined. Here, using various open-access spatial data and appropriate thresholds, we quantify population exposure to key environmental risk factors: hazardous fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels, extreme temperature increase, prolonged severe droughts, and green deficit. Further, we explore the concept of MEB, where these risk factors converge. We derive pixel-level (1Km grid) exposure estimates for 2000 and 2019. Additionally, we check the contribution of population change, environmental change and its interaction in the change in exposure to specific environmental risk factors and MEB. Results indicate a substantial increase in the population exposed in the past twenty years, i.e., the addition of ~460 million to hazardous PM2.5 levels, ~16 million to extreme temperature increase, ~13 million to prolonged severe droughts, and ~246 million to green deficit. Moreover, population exposure to at least three of these four environmental burdens has increased by ~246 million, contributed mainly from environment effect (48%). Notably, there are striking disparities in population exposure, its change and the contributing effects among countries and regions of sub-Saharan Africa. We conclude emphasizing the urgency of addressing issue of MEB for the well-being of the population and the sustainability of the environment in the subcontinent.

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 Presented in Session P2. Health, Mortality, Ageing - Aperitivo