Unravelling the Recent Sociodemographic and Geographic Determinants of Depopulation in Southern Europe.

Laura Marbán Martínez , Centre D'Estudis Demogràfics
Joaquín Recaño Valverde, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Cecilia Reynaud, Università Roma Tre
Antonio López Gay, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics (CED)

This article examines the factors that have recently influenced local growth in two Southern European countries: Spain and Italy. These studies are based the assumption that specific socio-demographic and geographical determinants are important in explaining variations in population growth patterns at the local level. The aim is to identify these factors more precisely, thus filling a gap in current research, which is often focused on local studies without an examination of cross-national comparisons. For this purpose, information from the 2011 and 2021 population census was harmonised, creating a homogeneous database with 8.131 observations for Spain and 7.903 for Italy. Initially, a descriptive analysis was conducted with the help of a comprehensive set of cartographic tools in order to illustrate the spatial patterns of growth in Spanish and Italian municipalities during the study period. A more detailed statistical analysis, including the construction of ordinary least squares regression models and an econometric analysis to assess the spatial autocorrelation of the indicators, will be carried out in the coming months. In order to assess the local impact of the various determinants on the growth process, a weighted spatial regression will also be applied. Although final results are not yet available, some preliminary results suggest differences in the intensity of local population loss between Spain and Italy, more pronounced in Spain.

See extended abstract

 Presented in Session 7. Internal Migration and Urbanization