The Causal Impact of Men or Women’s Job Loss on Fertility: A Couple-Level Analysis through Norwegian Register Data.

Rishabh Tyagi , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)
Elisa Brini, University of Oslo
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence

The effect of employment uncertainty on fertility has long been a subject of interest across various disciplines, yet findings remain fragmented with inconclusive evidence at the micro-level. This is primarily due to limitations in operationalising economic resources, neglecting the joint decision-making process between partners, and challenges in assessing causal effects. This study aims to address this gap by investigating the link between employment uncertainty and fertility, focusing on the impact of plant closures (PC) as exogenous shocks. Using data from Norwegian employment and population registers spanning 2005-2017, we employ discrete-time event history models to analyse the transition to first and second childbirth within couples. Our findings reveal that male partners' experience of plant closures has a small negative effect on a couple’s fertility for first and second births. Household Income plays a mitigating role in the impact on first births for male partners experiencing PC, whereas employment uncertainty remains a significant factor for the negative effect of female partners experiencing PC for the first birth and for male partners experiencing PC for the second birth. These results align with prior research from Finland and the UK/Germany, indicating a negative fertility response to employment uncertainty across different contexts. The Nordic countries' favourable employment conditions, gender-egalitarian attitudes, and robust welfare state provisions may explain the lower impacts and narrow differences in males' and female partners' fertility response to plant closures. In conclusion, this study contributes to understanding how experiencing plant closure influences fertility decisions within couples. By disentangling the effects of income and employment uncertainty, we provide insights into the mechanisms driving these decisions.

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 Presented in Session 104. Fertility and Reproduction: Bringing Men Back In