Environmental Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions

Raya Muttarak, University of Bologna
Chiara Puglisi , University of Bologna
Daniele Vignoli, University of Florence

This paper examines the interplay between climate change and fertility intentions, focusing on individuals aged 20-49 years living in Italy. The role of climate change is addressed by investigating the degree to which the perception of climate change as a problem is associated with fertility intentions. We use data from the 2016 ‘Family and Social Subjects’ survey, which includes both information regarding perceptions about the environment and fertility intentions. We employ regression techniques to investigate how preoccupation with climate change affects the intention to have a child in the future. Preliminary results suggest the existence of a parenthood mediating effect in the relationship. Indeed, while among childless individuals, preoccupation with climate change seems to be positively associated with the probability of reporting the intention to want a child, this effect is not observed among parents, for which, rather, climate preoccupation does not seem to predict childbearing intentions. Future steps of the study involve the use of a methodological framework that allows us to estimate the (possible endogenous) impact of climate change perception on fertility intentions via bivariate-ordered probit models and the use of an instrumental variable, that is, municipality-level climatic conditions. We will measure how exposure to deviations from long-term trends in climatic conditions influences the perception of climate change in the first step. Overall, we expect such deviations to influence the respondents’ level of climate uncertainty, which, then, indirectly affects the intentions to have a child in the future.

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 Presented in Session P53. Flash session Climate Change, Individual Attitudes and Behavior