Internal Migration across the City Hierarchy and Differentially Urbanized Regions in Developing Countries

Mathias Lerch , Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale De Lausanne (epfl-eth)
Wenxiu Du, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale De Lausanne (epfl-eth)
Dorothee Beckendorff, EPFL

Urbanization is among the most important transformations of contemporary population geography in the global South. Yet we know almost nothing about demographic patterns of city growth. In this communication, we analyse domestic migration between a set of more than 1200 functional urban areas and 500 differentially urbanized regions defined consistently across time and space to improve international comparison across 41 developing countries spanning the entire urban transition. Trends are assessed from a cross-sectional perspective and confirmed based on a limited set of within-country observations over time. Results challenge the existing authoritative models of the urban transition. City populations play a crucial role during early phases of urbanization in the initiation of migratory behaviors, which are thereafter diffused down the urban hierarchy into rural areas. We found only timid indications for a levelling off in the rural exodus at advanced stages of urbanization. By contrast, the reverse flow from urban to rural areas declines over time. As urbanization progresses, migrants move over longer distances, and intermediate-sized and small cities constitute increasingly attractive destinations, relative to the primate cities.

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 Presented in Session 47. Internal Migration and Urban Change