European Best-Mortality Model Population: A Way to Identification of Potential National Improvements in Survival

Klára Hulíková Tesárková , Charles University in Prague
Adéla Pola, Faculty of Science, Charles University
Petr Mazouch, University of Economics, Prague (VSE)

In mortality analysis, there are many ways how the development could be studied as well as interpreted in relation to potential future improvements. One of the common approaches is a comparison of the studied population with any set goal one or a best related population (e.g., representing the highest value of life expectancy). In the presented paper, the European best-mortality model (fictitious) population was constructed as a combination of three national populations represented by the lowest level of mortality according to sex and age. At particular ages this best-mortality population is constructed as a combination of three countries with the lowest age-specific mortality rate. This best-mortality population could be used for evaluation of mortality disadvantages of any country in a particular year. On the other hand, the best-mortality population changes annually according to actual mortality conditions. There are two particular aims of the paper: (1) describe the basic development of the model best-mortality population, (2) evaluate the development of selected European countries in relation to the model best-mortality population. The results revealed that the best-mortality model population for males as well as for females expresses a constant mortality improvements and growth of the model life expectancy until the pandemic years. Decomposition of the differences between the model and selected national life expectancies revealed specific patterns of potential improvements, in transitional societies (Czechia) supported also by a strong cohort effect.

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 Presented in Session 74. Mortality Modelling