Back to Normality? Fertility Decline in the Late Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Maria Winkler-Dworak , Vienna Institute of Demography
Krystof Zeman, Vienna Institute of Demography
Tomas Sobotka, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital

This study investigates potential drivers of birth trends in higher-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus especially on the later phase of the pandemic, when mobility restrictions were lifted, social life was moving gradually toward “normality” and birth rates dropped unexpectedly in many countries since early 2022. We use monthly birth data for November 2020 – October 2022 from 27 higher-income countries covered by the Human Fertility Database. Panel data regression models are used to test three sets of potential explanations – economic factors, policy interventions (mobility restrictions), and vaccination. In the beginning of the pandemic, birth trends during periods of stricter containment measures differed depending on the level of social trust in the country: birth rates fell in countries with low social trust and they rose in high trust countries. However, in the later phase of the pandemic, the easing of containment measures and increased mobility were associated with declining fertility. Our results reveal a temporary postponement of births associated with the vaccination roll-out in 2021. In addition, increasing inflation rates in the second half of 2021 also contributed to the fall in birth rates in 2022.

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 Presented in Session 46. COVID-19 Impact on Fertility