Understanding the Development and Accumulation of Chronic Diseases Across Time in Older Adults

Sahar M A Ahmed , Centre d'Estudis Demografics
Aïda Solé-Auró, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Jordi Guma-Lao, Centre for Demographic Studies
Iñaki Permanyer, Centre d'Estudis Demogràfics

Objective: This study aims to identify the trajectories leading to multimorbidity and mortality among individuals aged 45-75, identify common patterns of morbidity and multimorbidity, and associate demographic characteristics with specific patterns and trajectories. Methods: Utilizing data from the Public Data Analysis for Health Research and Innovation Program (PADRIS) database, we traced the health status of 12,065 participants over 15 years, focusing on the emergence of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, metabolic disorders and their combinations. Sequence and cluster analyses were employed to understand the disease accumulation and common sequences in disease progression. Results: Our analysis uncovered a diverse array of health trajectories. A considerable subset remained healthy, however the transition from health primarily commenced with the onset of cardiovascular and metabolic conditions. Clustering revealed seven distinct sequences. The cluster characterised by a quick transitioning from health to mortality was mostly older men, while the cluster characterised prolonged periods of multi-morbidity was dominated by older women, highlighting significant roles for age and gender in influencing these pathways. Interpretation: The study follows the diverse trajectories of disease accumulation over time, underscoring the significance of early-life health statuses and demographic factors in these trajectories. Through nuanced clustering, the study emphasizes the complexity of health transitions, laying a foundation for tailored preventive strategies and interventions that address with the distinct sequences of disease

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 Presented in Session 29. Flash session Morbidity