Fertility Trends 2000-2020: Similarities and Differences between Western and Eastern European Countries

Marion Burkimsher , Independent Researcher and Université de Lausanne

Across Europe the trends in fertility rates (TFRs) were similar for the first decade of the new millennium: after reaching a nadir in 2001-2002 there was a steady rise until 2008-2010, when the economic crisis hit. Since then there has been divergence in the fertility trends of Western Europe (and other highly developed countries) and the Eastern European countries. In demographic terms the explanation is as follows. During the first period, early fertility (pre-modal age) stabilised whilst late fertility (post-modal age) increased; hence a widening fertility curve and rise in TFRs across Europe. For Western European countries during the second decade, late fertility stabilised but early fertility declined, leading to a narrower fertility curve and lower TFRs. In contrast, in Eastern European countries during this period, early fertility fell more modestly but late fertility increased significantly. In Western European countries the shapes of the fertility curves for ages over 34 have changed very little (if at all) between 2009 and 2020, and are also very similar between these countries. This suggests that a ‘barrier’ may have been hit in how much late fertility can increase, at least on a country scale. Whether this is a biological limitation or a sociological one we cannot say. In contrast, the Eastern European countries traditionally had much younger childbearing norms. Therefore, their fertility curve can move later without apparently hitting this ‘barrier’ as yet.

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course