Forced Displacement within and outside of Ukraine: How Do Key Characteristics Explain Distance Travelled?

Brienna Perelli-Harris , University of Southampton
orsola torrisi, NYU Abu Dhabi

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 produced the largest population displacement in Europe since World War II. The bombing campaign led around 14 million people to flee their homes, either remaining within Ukraine or leaving Ukraine altogether. These different responses raise questions about how the experience of violence impacts distance travelled and decisions to cross an international border, and whether this differs by key characteristics, such as education and family structure. To answer these questions, we use a rapid health-needs survey administered via Facebook from April-July 2022. The survey targeted Ukrainians over age 18 who had left home since February 2022. In total, 8400 participants – 40.9% IDPs and 59.1% refugees – completed the survey. We use multi-nomial logit models to analyse 5 categories of distance moved, including abroad to a bordering or non-bordering country, and long, middle, and short distances moved within Ukraine. Preliminary results indicate key factors for understanding distance moved. Those with less education were more likely to move abroad to a bordering country or stay within the same macro-region. Those who moved with vulnerable adults were less likely to move abroad, and those moving only with children were less likely to stay in their same macro-region or the Centre of the country, and more likely to move to a neighbouring country. Finally, those who witnessed a blast explosion were less likely to move abroad or make a long distance move, suggesting that those most exposed to violence have become IDPs, rather than refugees.

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 Presented in Session 57. Migrant Conflict Chronicles: Displacement Dynamics and Decision Dilemmas