Beyond the Crisis: Mortality Trends in Post-Communist Countries, 1989 – 2019

Katarzyna Doniec , University of Oxford
Jennifer Dowd, University of Oxford

The Soviet Union's breakup in 1991 precipitated a significant health crisis in post-communist countries. Although there has been extensive research on the early 1990s mortality crisis in the region, knowledge about subsequent life expectancy trajectories is limited. Using the WHO Mortality Database, life tables, and Arriaga decomposition, this study assesses life expectancy trends from 1989 to 2019 in 20 post-communist countries (11 former Soviet republics and 9 Satellite states) and the causes of death underpinning these trends. Initial findings indicate consistent life expectancy improvements in former Satellite states. In contrast, former Soviet republics displayed diverse trends, with Estonia nearing Western standards while countries like Russia and Ukraine lagged, experiencing life expectancy reversals beyond the 1990s crisis. Decomposition results suggest that shifts in infant mortality, external and circulatory mortality in the working-age population, and neoplasms and circulatory issues in older age groups were key contributors.

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 Presented in Session 87. Mortality Trends and Risk Factors