Pandemic Babies in Detail – Recent Birth Trends by Age of Mother, Birth Order and Selected Socio-Economic Characteristics

Krystof Zeman, Vienna Institute of Demography
Tomas Sobotka , Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital

The COVID-19 pandemic, that hit severely Europe since March 2020, seriously affected all aspects of social and economic life, which in turn inflicted profound changes in fertility levels and timing. It has been documented that nine months after the pandemic outset, in December 2020 to January 2021, the numbers of births fell in many European populations. After the temporary recuperation in the rest of year 2021, preliminary data for 2022 and 2023 show continuing decline in numbers of births. However, more detailed data by age of mother, birth order, and other characteristics are needed to get deeper insights about the impact of the pandemic. Our paper presents the first evidence on birth trends in Austria, Switzerland, Czechia, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden, based on detailed birth data by age of mother, birth order, origin, and education of mother. Our analysis is divided into two parts. In the first part, we analyse temporary changes in the short time span of December 2020 to January 2021, where the declines in births were massive in some countries (e.g., Spain by ~20%). In the second part, we analyse consequent decline of 2022–2023. Our hypothesis, that more vulnerable population groups have been more affected by the economic uncertainty and by the policies to curb the spread of the pandemic, was only partially confirmed. Furthermore, we hypothesise, that the two periods of decline might be affected by different mechanisms. We continue to update the data, so we provide the comprehensive picture by the EPC conference.

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 Presented in Session 46. COVID-19 Impact on Fertility