The Different Measures of Period Shocks on Mortality: The Case of COVID-19

Maria Miranda , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Ugofilippo Basellini, Max Planck Institute for demographic Research
Enrique Acosta, Centre for Demographic Studies
Emilio Zagheni, Max Planck Institute for demographic Research

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a tremendous increase in mortality over recent years, manifesting disparately among nations. Understanding the pandemic's immediate impact on mortality was essential to make decisions to control the virus's spread. In the long term, it has implications for the success of public policies and pension systems. Period measures, such as the period life expectancy, although convenient to overstate the impact of temporary epidemic mortality, can be misleading if considered a lifespan measure. In this study, using data from the World Population Prospects (WPP) 2022, we computed and compared alternative mortality measures to assess the pandemic's impact on the life trajectory of individuals exposed to it. In particular, we calculated estimates of cohort life expectancy at birth and the Truncated Cross-Sectional Average Length of Life (TCAL) for all countries in the world. Despite the reductions of more than 40 months in male life expectancy at birth between 2019 and 2021 in Peru, South Africa, and more than 28 months in the United States, cohort life expectancy estimates show that among the most affected cohorts, the decline was only close to four months for males born around the 50's in Peru. Regarding the TCAL, results show expressive reductions in 1-year relative changes after 2019 but not in the absolute estimates. By incorporating the past mortality experience of different cohorts exposed to the pandemic, our study allows a better understanding of the lifespan impact of COVID-19 and its effects on population structure and dynamics.

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 Presented in Session 100. Excess Mortality and Life Expectancy Changes during the COVID-19 pandemic