Planned? Forced? Analyzing the Mobility Decisions of Ukrainian Migrants in Poland in the Times of War

Anna Janicka , University of Warsaw
Agata A. Górny, University of Warsaw

It is trivial to state that migration decision-making is a complex process. Existing models allow an interplay of preferences and constraints in transition from mobility intentions to actions in case of volitional migration. Research on forced migration usually does not consider the phase of intent. Meanwhile, the distinction between volitional and non-volitional mobility is, in many cases, blurred. Some studies emphasize the need to consider migration as a continuum in the forced-voluntary dimension, but research in this strand is limited. In this paper, we fill the literature gap and analyze the intentions and realizations of mobility plans for migrants representing a wide range of contexts on the volitional scale, from typically reactive (experiencing coercion, escaping from threats) to typically proactive (maximizing advantages). Our analysis is based on a unique panel study of Ukrainian immigrants in Poland conducted by the Centre of Migration Research, University of Warsaw. In order to assess migratory backgrounds, we take into account various factors, such as migrants’ declarations regarding reasons for leaving Ukraine and choosing Poland, migration histories, as well as the context and the intended duration of their stay in Poland. The timeframe includes migrants who arrived in Poland both prior to and after the 2022 outburst of the full-scale war. This allows a deepened investigation of the importance of a wide range of factors for the formation and realization of migration plans, taking into account the extent of volition and without the need to revert to a dichotomous categorization of refugee vs voluntary movements.

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 Presented in Session 57. Migrant Conflict Chronicles: Displacement Dynamics and Decision Dilemmas