Trends in the Burden of Disability in the United States, 1996-2018: Analysis Using Multistate Models

Shubhankar Sharma , University of Helsinki
Jo Mhairi Hale, University of St Andrews

Using the Health and Retirement Study and advanced multistate models, this study is the first to examine the trends (1996-2006 and 2008-2018) in different aspects of disability burden, such as lifetime risk, age at onset, expectancy, and recovery from disability. We study the older U.S. population by gender, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment. For the over adult population, most (83%) of the increase in total life expectancy at age 50 is in years free of disability, accompanied by a significant postponement (1 year) in the onset and recovery from disability, with no change in lifetime risk of disability. However, we observe notable sociodemographic disparities, with mortality and disability trends translating into deteriorating conditions for Latinx and lower educated adults. Furthermore, the worsening of health for the lowest educated Whites has placed them in a more disadvantaged position than Blacks and Latinx.

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 Presented in Session P2. Health, Mortality, Ageing - Aperitivo