Fertility Plans and Their Realization in an Age of Insecurity: Was the Covid-19 Pandemic a Unique Shock? An Analysis of UK Data.

Francesca F Fiori , University of Strathclyde

With the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, concerns emerged over how the economic and social uncertainty would influence fertility intentions and consequent fertility behaviour. Less scholarly attention, however, focused on the extent to which the Covid-19 pandemic represented a unique shock to individuals’ childbearing plans. This study uses longitudinal data from two UK nationally representative surveys, the UKHLS and the BHPS. It focuses on select samples of women expressing positive fertility intentions at different timepoints over the last two decades (1998, 2009/10 and 2018-19), and then followed up over a short period of time (2 to 3 years). The study addresses the following research questions: 1) What is the short-term likelihood of maintaining, revising or realising positive fertility intentions? And was that different during the Covid-19 pandemic? 2) What are the main demographic and socio-economic factors associated with the likelihood of maintaining, revising or realising positive fertility intentions? And were these different during the Covid-19 pandemic? Preliminary findings show that between 2018-19 and 2021 most women who expressed positive fertility intentions put their plans on hold, while 17.7% realised their intentions of having a child and 16.9% abandoned them. Childless women were more likely to put their plans on hold, while women who already had children were more likely to both fulfil their plans or revise them downward. Younger women were more likely to realise, and older women to revise their intentions. Results are also suggestive of women responding in contrasting ways under uncertain economic circumstances.

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course