Individual Motivations and Network Effects as Underlying Mechanisms in Migration Rates: A Theoretical Agent Based Model

Jose Ignacio Carrasco , University of Oxford, Centre on Migration, Policy and Society (COMPAS).
Joelle Mak, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Martin Hinsch, University of Glasgow

We aim to model the theoretical foundations of micro behavior corresponding to the decision to migrate and to describe how individual motivations and migrant networks affect migration rates over time. We use Agent-Based Models (ABM) to model individual micro-behavior, migration costs, and different levels of decision-making (household and individual) and migrant networks (household and community). Our framework consists of four components: i) the identification of the so-called pioneers and followers macro-pattern in migration rates in population of origin; ii) the role of a somewhat planned behavior in the decision-making process involving a differentiation between intention and actual migration; iii) the acknowledgment of migration as an individual endeavour, but also embedded in households strategy of risk diversification; iv) finally, the role of migrant networks, that is strong and weak ties in explaining sustained migration flows as a cumulative causation mechanism. we use an ABM to model migration as a micro-decision making process to explain the role of individual and migrant networks on migration rates over time. We develop a working model of migration decision-making that contained both individual motivations and migrant networks, as well as the different states individuals could move to. Results indicate that different household vulnerability thresholds played a slight role in migration rates over time. As expected, a higher vulnerability threshold reduced the share of persons in an intention state. This effect was small and in some cases nonexistent with regard to the total share of migrants.

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 Presented in Session P3. Migration, Economics, Policies, History