Regional Typologies of Demographic Change Based on Complex Systems of Demographic Reproduction (CSDR). a Cross-Country Comparison of Spain, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands.

Leo van Wissen , Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and University of Groningen
Marcin Stonawski, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) / Cracow University of Economics
Andreu Domingo Valls, CED

Europe is at a turning point in demographic development. Since 2020 the European population has turned negative. Negative natural population change since 1993 was compensated by increasing net migration numbers, but this is now insufficient for net growth. As a consequence, some countries are still growing in population size, whereas other countries are shrinking. At the regional level the variation in population change is even much larger, due to the additional impact of internal migration, including urbanization, suburbanization, and counter-urbanization. In this paper we explore the impact of the various components of population change on population and societal renewal of spatial areas of different territorial aggregation. We also study the impact of international migration on internal migration, and on natural growth. This entails new typological considerations based on demography, and taking into account the time dimension as well: are these historically immigrant or emigrant regions, or can this be considered a relatively recent phenomenon? We build upon the concept of Complex Systems of Demographic Reproduction (CSDR) based on immigration, and CSDR’s based on emigration. Using the mix of dimensions of mobility for all regions we arrive at a regional mobility typology in four countries: Spain, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands. We look at similarities and discrepancies between the resulting typologies. We explore typologies based on different measures of population dynamics: (1) a multidimensional profile based on natural growth, internal and external migration; (2) including country of origin; (3) the population turnover rate and the migration share of turnover.

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 Presented in Session 47. Internal Migration and Urban Change