Temperature Shocks and Contraceptive Use in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Disparities by Region, Method Type and Individual-Level Characteristics.

Katherine Del Salto Calderon , Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Joshua K. Wilde, Oxford University

Despite growing interest in the relationship between environmental change and population dynamics, few studies have explored climate change's potential impact on contraceptive use as either a fertility determinant or from a public health perspective. We estimate this effect by linking Demographic and Health Surveys' (DHS) contraceptive calendar data with subnational daily temperature data from 52 low- and middle-income countries. We use fixed effects models to remove seasonality, and use the random year-to-year temperature variation within subnational regions, lending our estimates a causal interpretation. Our results suggest that temperature increases have varied effects in different world regions. We show that Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa experience reduced contraceptive use due to high temperatures, while South Asia sees a slight increase in contraceptive use with higher temperatures. Additionally, we explore how this effect differs by method type and women’s individual characteristics. In terms of method type, we find that the use of Natural Family Planning (NFP) methods—like abstinence or the rhythm—rises as temperature rise, while the use of Short Acting Reversible Contraceptives (SARC) declines. Based on the women's wealth, place of residence, and level of education, we anticipate varying effects of temperature on contraception. We aim to add to the body of knowledge on climate change and population dynamics. In this work we aim to provide evidence on the its effect on reproductive health behavior, which is a critical component of overall health and fertility.

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 Presented in Session P11. Climate Change Impacts in the Global South