Intended, Desired, and Actual Fertility in a Cross-Country Comparison. Evidence on Fertility Gaps at Different Age Groups from the Generations and Gender Survey Round II

Carmen Friedrich , Federal Institute for Population Research
Martin Bujard, Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB)

In low-fertility contexts, previous research shows an aggregate gap between the number of children people have and the family size they desire or intend to have. Up-to date knowledge on the extent of discrepancies between desires, intentions, and behavior regarding fertility is highly relevant, as it gives insights into age-specific mechanisms when individuals (not) realize the family size they intent or desire. Analyzing recent data for eight countries (Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Moldova, Norway) from the Generations and Gender Survey round 2, collected 2020-2023, we aim to answer the following questions: (1) What is the extend of two different aggregate fertility gaps (intended vs. actual; desired vs. actual) among women in different age-groups? (2) How do they differ by country? (3) How do these fertility gaps vary by sociodemographic characteristic among specific age groups? Our results reveal that the gap between women’s mean desired and actual family size (age 40-49) ranges from 0.43 to 0.60 across countries. Contrary to the gap between mean ideal and actual fertility, the gap between mean intended and actual family size closes at the end of women’s childbearing years. Results from multivariate analyses show overall similar patterns across countries. Educational attainment appears to play a role above all in the phase of starting a family (age 30-39). Moreover, all models confirm the strong relevance of partnership status. Religiosity appears to play a role in the intended number of children at the beginning of the life course (age 18-29).

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 Presented in Session P1. Fertility, Family, Life Course