Did the Number of Heat-Related Deaths Increase in Germany in the 21st Century?

Roland Rau , University of Rostock
Bernhard Koeppen, Universitaet Koblenz-Landau

The impact of climate change on human health and, ultimately, on mortality have become focal aspects in the academic as well as in the public sphere. Based on data from the German Federal Statistical Office and weather data from the German Weather Service, we analyzed whether the number of heat-related deaths has increased in Germany and its 16 states during the 21st century. We used a Generalized Additive Model to estimate the number of deaths using smooth terms for the impact of calendar time, seasonality as well as for temperature. The number of heat-related deaths was exceptionally high in Germany and most of its states in 2022. With the exception of that year we could not find a clear trend towards an increase in the number of heat-related deaths. They typically constitute less than one percent of all deaths in a year. It has been argued in the literature that people are better able to adapt to changing climate conditions since the mortality response to a given temperature has declined over time. This might explain the lack of a trend in heat-related deaths. We aim to address this question, among other questions, in the coming months.

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 Presented in Session 65. Flash session Mortality and Longevity