Spatiotemporal Drivers of Late Fertility Shifts Across European Regions

Ingrid Setz , Wittgenstein Centre (IIASA, OeAW, Univ. Vienna)
Marie-Caroline Compans, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital
Eva Beaujouan, University of Vienna (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital)

Late fertility has emerged as a landmark trend across high-income countries in recent decades. Previous research has largely attributed geographic disparities in the prevalence of this phenomenon to differences in socioeconomic contextual factors. Our study adds a new dimension to the understanding of late fertility development over time: the role of diffusion processes. We employ a comprehensive panel of 193 regions spanning 18 European countries to study the substantial increase in the contribution of late fertility rates to total fertility, rising from 16.6% in 2006 to 22.8% in 2018. We exploit regional variation in this increase to assess whether late fertility in a region is influenced by nearby regions’ behaviour in preceding periods. To test this, we utilize a dynamic spatial Durbin model that captures both temporal and spatial interdependencies. Accounting for various factors known to affect late fertility rates, such as the tertiarization of education or changes in the opportunity structures within the economy, we find a significant link between geographic proximity and the rise of late fertility across European regions. This emphasizes the profound interconnectedness of contemporary societies. Thus, beyond socioeconomic transformations, our research provides empirical evidence for contagion process contributing to the spread of late births across the continent – which is likely to be relevant in shaping future fertility trends.

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 Presented in Session 58. Regional Heterogeneity of Fertility within Countries